ACross-validated, large or independent samples
B+ / B / B−Strong to single-study; correlational or limited replication
CInference, extrapolation, or clinical consensus
FDebunked, retracted, or untraceable
Flags: AA author-affiliated samples · IF industry-funded · XS cross-sectional / student sample · SB survivor bias · BC Black/Caribbean-specific · RC specific to repartnering with children.
01What's Not True
F
"Wait one year / three years before remarrying"
Untraceable. The "3 years → 22% lower divorce" figure appears only on a commercial blog. Wolfinger 2007 (Journal of Divorce & Remarriage; N=1,171, NSFH) found no relationship between time to remarriage and remarriage stability.
B−
Courtship length before marriage predicts stability
Francis-Tan & Mialon 2015 (Economic Inquiry; N>3,000, mTurk). 1–2 years ≈20% lower divorce hazard; 3+ years ≈39–50% lower vs under a year.
XS · less replicated than the same paper's wedding-cost finding
F
"60–73% of second marriages fail"
Untraceable. BLS NLSY79 (2024): 39.1% of second marriages had ended by age 55.
B
"Love yourself first" as prerequisite — unsupported
Jansen, Rahe & Siebertz 2025/26 (Discover Psychology; N=460): self-care and self-acceptance relate to passion/intimacy/commitment; self-contact does not. Authors note no prior evidence for the prerequisite claim.
A
Partner traits explain ~5% of satisfaction; relationship-specific variables up to 45%
Joel et al. 2020 (PNAS; 43 datasets, 11,196 couples, machine-learning across studies).
B
Individual therapy not established for relationship outcomes
Carr 2025 (Journal of Family Therapy review): systemic/couple interventions match or exceed individual therapy for relationship distress.
A
Deception detection runs at 54%
Bond & DePaulo 2006 (Personality and Social Psychology Review; 206 documents, 24,483 judges). 47% of lies caught, 61% of truths; professionals no better. DePaulo et al. 2003: nonverbal cues "barely related to veracity."
A
Personality similarity explains <0.5% of satisfaction
Dyrenforth, Kashy, Donnellan & Lucas 2010 (JPSP; Australia N=5,278, UK N=6,554, Germany N=11,418). Actor effects ~6%; partner effects 1–3%.
A
Matching algorithms have no demonstrated validity
Finkel, Eastwick, Karney, Reis & Sprecher 2012 (Psychological Science in the Public Interest 13:3–66).
B+
68% of couples were friends first
Stinson, Cameron & Hoplock 2022 (SPPS; seven samples, N=1,897). ~85% among LGBTQ+; ~8% of initiation studies examine this pathway.
XS
F
"80–90% divorce after a child dies"
Origin: Schiff, The Bereaved Parent (1977), no source cited. Real: Compassionate Friends 2006 ~16%; 1999 NFO survey (N=14,852) 12% divorced, 72% still married; Schwab 1998 review found no elevated rate.
F
"Men leave sick wives" — retracted
Karraker & Latham 2015 (Journal of Health and Social Behavior) retracted July 2015 after a coding error miscounted attrition as divorce; reported 32% was ~6%. Corrected analysis: no general gender effect; heart problems only.
A
The U-curve of marital happiness is an artifact
VanLaningham, Johnson & Amato 2001 (Social Forces; 17-year, five-wave national panel): decline at all durations, no late-life upturn.
A
Black fathers most involved on daily measures
CDC NHSR No. 71 (Jones & Mosher 2013; NSFG 2006–2010): 70% daily hands-on care vs 60% white, 45% Hispanic; 41% daily homework help vs 28%/29%. Fragile Families (N=2,447): involvement declines less on repartnering.
BC · RC
02Do You Actually Want This?
B
Marriage → happiness effect is small and selection-driven
DePaulo (singlism critique); Greitemeyer 2009; Sarkisian & Gerstel 2016; Kislev on happy singlehood. Longitudinal data show a short-lived bump around the wedding.
DePaulo is an advocate; strongest formulations overreach
A
Mortality by marital status, men
CDC/NCHS 2010–2017 age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 (2017): married 942.9; never-married 1,735.1; divorced 1,772.7; widowed 2,238.7. 53-cohort meta: ~12% lower mortality married vs unmarried. NSHAP: never-married older men with high non-spousal support no more likely to die than married peers.
Association A; isolation-mechanism interpretation B
B+
Consensual non-monogamy: no satisfaction or commitment deficit
Anderson et al. 2025 (Journal of Sex Research; meta-analysis, 35 studies, N=24,489): no satisfaction difference, higher trust. Conley et al. 2017; Rubel & Bogaert 2015. Prevalence: Haupert et al. 2017 (two Census-based samples, n=3,905; 4,813) ~21–22% lifetime.
Measurement invariance unproven; scales normed on monogamous samples
B
Post-loss preference instability
Carr 2004 (JMF; widowhood panel, N=210 at 6 months / 155 at 18): desire to remarry stable, dating interest doubled (men 17%→37%); ~7% wanted to date at both waves. Brown, Lin, Hammersmith & Wright 2019 (Demography; HRS): 37% of men, 22% of women repartner within 10 years of gray divorce.
A−
Fear of being single predicts settling
Spielmann et al. 2013 (JPSP 105:1049; multi-study; 2018 correction). Spielmann et al. 2020 (JSPR; N=122, N=171): FOBS unrelated to judge-rated attractiveness.
A−
Child outcomes worsen with each parental partner transition
Fomby & Cherlin 2007 (ASR; NLSY/CNLSY); Cavanagh & Huston 2006, 2008 (NICHD SECC). Roughly linear; early-childhood worst; cousin-comparison designs shrink but don't eliminate; Amato 2006.
RC
B
Caribbean family structures
Clarke 1957 My Mother Who Fathered Me (foundational, colonial-era); Lazarus-Black 1995 critique; Barrow 1996 synthesis; Chamberlain 2003.
BC · ethnographic, older
03The Work That Actually Transfers
B+
Trainable dyadic behaviors
Perceived partner responsiveness (Reis & Clark); gratitude (Algoe; Gordon et al. 2012; caveats Cazzell 2023, McNulty & Dugas 2019); self-soothing under flooding (Gottman); accommodation and sacrifice (Rusbult).
B
Volitional personality change
Hudson & Fraley 2015 (JPSP; two 16-week randomized experiments); Hudson et al. 2019 (must attain behavior); Hudson, Briley, Chopik & Briley 2020 mega-analysis. Single-trait effects to d≈.45; 3–6 month burst.
Change → better relationships: C
B
Post-divorce adjustment predictors
Wang & Amato 2000 (JMF; N=208, 17-year panel). Divorce-recovery interventions: meta-analytic Δ≈0.47 (N=2,022, 24 effect sizes). Perrig-Chiello et al. 2015.
B
Fathering ↔ marital quality is bidirectional
Lausanne Trilogue Play studies (N=103); BYU APIM studies.
B+
Self-expansion
Aron et al. 2000; Muise et al. 2019; Mattingly & Lewandowski 2013; Fivecoat et al. 2015; Emery et al. 2025 (unshared growth can signal drift).
AA in part
A−
Self-Other Knowledge Asymmetry
Vazire 2010 (JPSP 98:281); Vazire & Mehl 2008. Self better on low-observability traits; others on high-evaluativeness.
B− for pathological traits
A
Limits of introspection
Nisbett & Wilson 1977 (Psychological Review 84:231); Johansson, Hall, Sikström & Olsson 2005 (Science) choice blindness.
B+
People have a type; dynamics repeat
Park & MacDonald 2019 (PNAS; N=332, partners' own self-reports). Johnson & Neyer 2019. 2024 Collabra (184 dating + 168 transition-to-parenthood couples).
A
Stated preferences ≠ actual choice
Buss & Schmitt 2019 (stated sex differences replicate); Eastwick & Finkel 2008; Todd et al. 2007 (vanish in actual selection); Kasser & Sharma 1999 (culturally moderated).
B+
Discrimination stress and couple functioning
FACHS: Murry, Brown, Brody, Cutrona & Simons 2001 (JMF 63:915); Lavner et al. 2018; Clavél, Cutrona & Russell 2017; McNeil Smith et al. 2020 (racism-specific support buffers); Kelley et al. 2026 meta-analysis (JSPR).
BC
04Floors, Not Scorecards
A
Stated ideals don't predict in-person desire
Eastwick & Finkel 2008 (JPSP; N≈163); Eastwick, Luchies, Finkel & Hunt 2014 (Psychological Bulletin meta-analysis); JESP 2019 "negligible evidence."
B+
Preferences work as thresholds, not dials
Li et al. 2013 (JPSP 105:757); Li, Kenrick, Bailey & Linsenmeier 2002 (JPSP 82:947) necessities vs luxuries.
B+
Online behavioral data: stated filters vs contacts
Whyte & Torgler 2017 (219,013 contact decisions; 41,936 members); baihe.com ~200,000 users; eHarmony-decade life-course sorting.
A
Dealbreakers weighted more than dealmakers
Jonason et al. 2015 (PSPB; six studies, N>6,500).
Factor structure not consistently reproduced
A
Fertility by age — modern prospective data
Dunson, Baird & Colombo 2004 (Obstet Gynecol 103:51; N=782): infertility 8% at 19–26, 13–14% at 27–34, 18% at 35–39. Steiner & Jukic 2016 (Fertility & Sterility): fecundability −14% at 34–35, −30% at 38–39, −53% at 40–41, −59% at 42–44 vs 30–31. Paternal age: Kong et al. (Icelandic sequencing) ~2 de novo mutations/year.
F
"1 in 3 women 35–39 won't conceive within a year"
Traces (Twenge 2013, The Atlantic) to a 2004 Human Reproduction paper built on French birth records 1670–1830.
A−
Religion: attendance homogamy predicts; belief content does not
Heaton & Pratt 1990 (Journal of Family Issues; NSFH); Call & Heaton 1997; Lehrer & Chiswick.
B+
Religiosity as resource in Black couples
Barton, Beach, Bryant et al. 2011 (JCCP; N=207 FACHS); Krause on congregational support (14 of 16 dimensions).
BC
A
Substance use: concordance is the mechanism
Cranford 2014 (JSAD; NESARC N=43,083): 48.3% dissolution with lifetime AUD vs 30.1%. HRS (N=4,589 couples): one heavy drinker highest-risk configuration. NIAAA/NESARC: ~8–10 year treatment gap; Moss et al. 2007 functional subtype 19.5% (N=1,484).
A
Financial disagreement is the strongest divorce predictor
Dew, Britt & Huston 2012 (N=4,574).
B
Values similarity tracks survival; personality doesn't
Bleske-Rechek et al. 2009. Politics contested: IFS/American Family Survey (47% vs 61%/55%) and UK Demography 2025 vs Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (~2% vs ~3%, null).
A
Intergenerational transmission of divorce
Amato & DeBoer 2001 (JMF): one spouse's parents divorced +69% odds; both +189%. Mechanism: commitment to permanence, not skills. Whitton, Stanley, Markman et al. 2008: confidence, not dedication.
A
Perceived similarity beats actual
Montoya, Horton & Kirchner 2008 (JSPR; 460 effect sizes, 313 studies): actual r=.47, perceived r=.39; actual not significant in existing relationships.
B+
Standards level vs flexibility
Fletcher, Simpson, Thomas & Giles 1999 (JPSP 76:72); Campbell, Simpson, Kashy & Fletcher 2001 (PSPB 27:447).
AA · dating samples
B+
Interracial outcomes fall between same-race groups
Zhang & Van Hook 2009 (JMF 71:95); Bratter & King 2008; Kalmijn, de Graaf & Janssen 2005.
05The Reciprocity Test
This chapter is derived. No study tests reciprocity of role expectations directly. The three findings below are adjacent evidence that unspoken, gendered obligations are a real fault line.
A−
Men's non-employment destabilizes; women's employment is an exit resource
Sayer, England, Allison & Kangas 2011 (AJS; NSFH).
A
Wife out-earning husband → lower satisfaction, higher divorce, via gender norms
Bertrand, Kamenica & Pan 2015 (QJE 130:571; US administrative data).
A
Equal division of labor buffers the parenthood decline
Doss, Rhoades, Stanley & Markman 2009 (JPSP; 218 couples, 8-year prospective).
06Told vs. Observed
A
Past-behavior questions beat hypotheticals
McDaniel et al. 1994 (JAP; 245 coefficients, N=86,311); Taylor & Small 2002: past-behavior .63 vs situational .43 mean validity.
Transfer to dating: B (inferred)
B+
Impression management in early dating
Toma, Hancock & Ellison 2008 (PSPB 34:1023; N=80, measured): ~80% shaded height/weight/age. Ellison, Heino & Gibbs 2006: "ideal self."
XS
A
Dyadic coping ↔ satisfaction r=.45
Falconier, Jackson, Hilpert & Bodenmann 2015 (Clinical Psychology Review 42:28; 72 samples, N=17,856).
B+
Contempt as strongest destructive marker; active listening predicts nothing
Gottman observational research. Paraphrasing exchanges in 4.4% of happy-couple interactions.
Prediction-accuracy claims: F (Heyman & Smith Slep 2001, PPV ~21–43%)
B+
Forgiveness has a dark side
McNulty 2008/2010/2011 (PSPB; 135 newlywed couples, diary + 4-year): forgiven behavior nearly 2× as likely to recur next day. McNulty & Russell 2016: agreeableness moderates.
A
Attachment: modest, reliable, changeable
Candel & Turliuc 2019 (132 studies, N=71,011) r≈.20–.25. Zhang et al. 2022 (224 studies, N=79,722). Fraley et al. 2021 (N>4,000): ~a quarter of major life events produce enduring change. Chopik et al. 2019 (59-year). Roisman et al. 2002 caveat on retrospective earned security.
B
Coercive control presents early as intensity
Stark (coercive control); Johnson typology (critiqued: Meier). Young-adult dating sample (N=398): ~35% abusive, 11% nonviolent coercive control.
Prevalence estimates vary widely
C
"Waiter rule"
Plausible via power/empathy and dark-triad literatures; no dedicated study links it to partner treatment.
A−
Past infidelity ≈3× future odds
Knopp et al. 2017 (Archives of Sexual Behavior 46:2301; N=484 across two consecutive relationships). Vowels et al. 2021 (N=1,295, ML): infidelity "somewhat predictable"; models explain 17–21% of variance.
Re-partnered sample; not representative
A
Accuracy rises with acquaintance; outcome-relevant traits take longest
Funder, Kolar & Blackman 1995; Colvin & Funder 1991; Watson et al. 2000 (married r≈.56, dating ≈.47, friends ≈.41); Ambady & Rosenthal 1992 (thin slices); McDonald & Letzring 2016.
B+
Outside observers predict better than partners
MacDonald & Ross 1999 (PSPB 25:1417); Felmlee 2001; Etcheverry, Le & Hoffman 2013; Le et al. 2010 meta-analysis.
A
Positive illusions are protective
Murray & Holmes 1996a/b, 1997. No study gives the crossover into denial.
07What People Hide
B
Financial secrets are common
Bankrate 2024: 42% (23% debt, 19% savings, 18% card). NEFE/Harris 2021 (N=2,073): 43%. Garbinsky et al. 2020 (JCR) Financial Infidelity Scale. Range 13–43% by wording.
B
Secrecy harms via rumination, not concealment
Slepian (Psychological Review, in press; 2022). Uysal et al. 2012 diary study.
B−
Covert surveillance predicts lower trust and satisfaction
Tokunaga 2011/2016; Elphinston & Noller 2011 (N=342); Reed, Tolman & Safyer 2015 (N=307; replicated N=703): attachment anxiety predicts intrusion.
XS · undergraduate, cross-sectional
A
Prenup disclosure requirements
UPAA/UPMAA (29 states + DC); California Family Code §1615 (independent counsel, 7-day review); Massachusetts two-look test.
General information, not legal advice
B+
Treated vs untreated is the variable
McLean Study (Zanarini; N=290 BPD + 72): 93% symptomatic remission at 10 years; recovered patients marry at near-comparison rates. MUSUBI (N=1,071 bipolar): 2.8% divorced over 2 years. Lambert et al. 2012 PTSD meta (~22 studies; r=−.24, .30). Seidman et al. 2026 narcissism (>5,000 couples).
F
"90% of bipolar marriages end in divorce" / "ADHD raises divorce 30–50%"
Untraceable to peer-reviewed sources. Eakin et al. 2004 (N=33) shows poorer adjustment tied to untreated ADHD; no effect size supports the circulated figure.
08Tempo
B+
Sliding vs deciding; pre-engagement cohabitation effect
Stanley, Rhoades & Markman 2006; Rhoades, Stanley & Markman 2009; Kline et al. 2004; Stanley et al. 2010; representative sample ~1,600 first marriages 2010–2019 (reasons for moving in predict divorce).
AA · replicated within the group
B
Premarital cohabitation effect — contested
Rosenfeld & Roesler 2018 (JMF; NSFG, 216,455 couple-years): persists after year five. Kuperberg 2014; Manning, Smock & Kuperberg 2019: artifact of age-at-marriage control.
Unsettled; both extremes overstate
B−
Sexual timing — contested on causality
Busby, Carroll & Willoughby 2010 (JFP; N=2,035, RELATE, BYU-funded): waiting → +22% stability, +20% satisfaction, +15% sexual quality, +12% communication. Sassler, Addo & Lichter 2012 (JMF; ~600): effect for women, mediated by rapid cohabitation.
XS · SB · AA (Busby)
B−
Sunk cost in relationships
Rego, Arantes & Magalhães 2016 (Current Psychology; ~1,000; hypothetical vignettes).
C
"Wait 6 months / 1 year before introducing a partner to your child"
Clinical consensus (Hetherington lineage; Papernow). The evidenced variable is transition count (see Chapter 2 sources).
RC
B
Rebound relationships — no demonstrated harm
Wolfinger 2007 (null); Brumbaugh & Fraley 2015 (JSPR 32:99; small, young, female-skewed samples).
"Rebound is positive": C+
09The Weight
A
Transition to parenthood
Twenge, Campbell & Foster 2003 (JMF meta): d=−.19; 38% of mothers of infants high satisfaction vs 62% childless. Doss et al. 2009 (JPSP; 218 couples, 8-year): sudden, persistent drop after birth.
A−
Job loss: layoffs destabilize, plant closings don't
Charles & Stephens 2004 (Journal of Labor Economics; PSID 1968–1993). Keldenich & Luecke 2020 (German: closures +54%, dismissals +74%). Amato & Beattie 2011 (aggregate unemployment reduces divorce post-1980).
B+
Dedication vs constraint commitment
Stanley & Markman 1992; Owen, Rhoades, Stanley & Markman 2011 (Revised Commitment Inventory).
AA
A−
Sexual growth vs destiny beliefs
Maxwell et al. 2017 (JPSP; 6 studies, N=1,896); Raposo et al. 2021; Gander et al. 2025 (N=904 couples, longitudinal). Knee 1998 (JPSP 74:360) on relationship destiny/growth generally.
A
Sexual frequency plateaus at about once a week
Muise, Schimmack & Impett 2016 (SPPS; N=30,645; GSS sub-sample 25,510). Correlational; relationships only.
A
Gray divorce
Brown & Lin 2012 (Journals of Gerontology B): doubled 1990–2010; remarriage 2.5× first-marriage risk. Lin, Brown et al. 2018 antecedents.
RC-relevant
A
Covenant marriage does not reduce divorce
Nock, Sanchez & Wright 2008 (~707 couples) reported ~half the rate; Su, Ledermann & Fincham 2023 (Personal Relationships) re-analysis: 10.8% vs 15.8%, not significant.
B
Illness and staying
Karraker & Latham corrected (heart only); Glantz et al. 2009 (brain tumor/MS cohorts; cancer ~11.6%). Caregiver-burden literature large.
Gender asymmetry: C
A
Legal: elective share, QTIP, ERISA, child support
Elective share ~⅓ (PA, NY; FL 30%); 26 U.S.C. §2044; ~26 states with revocation-on-divorce statutes (not ERISA — Cehovic-Dixneuf v. Wong, 7th Cir. 2018); child support: TX; CA §4057.5, §4071; NY; PA.
RC · general information, not legal advice; state variation substantial
Two prior compendiums underpin the whole guide and are not re-listed here: the predictor review (Joel 2020; Gottman prediction critique via Heyman & Smith Slep 2001; Dew 2012; Jonason 2015; Stanley 2006) and the dyadic-instrument review (PREPARE/ENRICH, DAS/RDAS, CSI-16, RELATE, FOCCUS, RMBI). Full synthesis available on request.