13Divorce and dissolution
"80–90% of couples divorce after a child dies."
~12–16%. Compassionate Friends 2006: ~16%, fewer than half citing the death; 1999 NFO survey (N=14,852): 72% still married, 16% widowed, 12% divorced; Schwab 1998 and a 2003 nursing review found no elevated rate. Origin: Harriet Schiff, The Bereaved Parent (1977), no source cited.
"Men leave their wives when the wife gets sick."
Karraker & Latham 2015 retracted for a one-line coding error (attrition miscoded as divorce): reported 32% divorce was actually ~6%; 35% attrition, not <1%. Corrected: no general gender effect; asymmetry only for heart problems (~6-point higher divorce probability when wives fall ill).
"Couples who wait 3+ years after divorce have 22% lower divorce rates."
Untraceable; appears only on a commercial blog (connectedcouples.app), not in any NCFMR publication. Wolfinger 2007 (N=1,171): no relationship between time to remarriage and remarriage stability.
"60–73% of second marriages fail."
Untraceable. BLS NLSY79 (2024): 39.1% of second marriages had ended by age 55.
"Wait one year before dating" / "one year for every 5–7 years married."
Advice-column folklore, no primary source.
"Rebound relationships are doomed."
Wolfinger 2007 null; Brumbaugh & Fraley 2015 found faster repartnering associated with better well-being (small samples). F as a rule.
"Courtship length and post-divorce waiting are the same thing."
Courtship length before marrying a given partner predicts stability (Francis-Tan & Mialon 2015: 1–2 yrs ≈20% lower hazard; 3+ ≈39–50%); post-divorce waiting has no evidenced effect. Routinely conflated.
"Covenant marriage cuts divorce in half."
Su, Ledermann & Fincham 2023 re-analysis of the Nock data: 10.8% vs 15.8% at five years, not statistically significant; ~5% uptake, self-selected.
"Marital happiness follows a U-curve and recovers in later life."
Cross-sectional artifact; VanLaningham, Johnson & Amato 2001 five-wave panel: decline at all durations, no upturn.
"Online couples are 3× more likely to divorce."
Untraceable. Rosenfeld: no difference on breakup; Cacioppo 2013 (eHarmony-funded): slightly lower.
Precise interracial-divorce multipliers (e.g., "2.3×").
AI-aggregator origin. Real pattern: risk falls between the two same-race groups and is pairing-specific (Zhang & Van Hook 2009; Bratter & King 2008).
Age-gap divorce percentages (3% / 18% / 39% / 95%).
Randal Olson's blog visualization of Francis-Tan & Mialon mTurk data; underlying hazard ≈1.02–1.03 per year of gap; correlational.
"Black divorce rate is 30.8% vs 42% national."
Commercial content (Essence, Gitnux), incompatible denominators; use ACS/BLS.
17Selection and prediction
"Gottman predicts divorce with 90%+ accuracy."
Post-hoc models fitted on the same sample; Heyman & Smith Slep 2001 cross-validation collapses it; positive predictive value ~21–43% at realistic base rates (P1). Gottman's own reliability document concedes the profiles may only map perceptions. Keep contempt and self-soothing as observables; drop the accuracy claim.
"You can tell when someone is lying from body language."
Bond & DePaulo 2006 (24,483 judges): 54% accuracy; gaze aversion, fidgeting, face-touching lack diagnostic value (DePaulo 2003); professionals no better.
"Matching algorithms find compatible partners."
Finkel et al. 2012 (PSPI): no compelling evidence any algorithm works; compatibility is emergent and dyadic.
"Opposites attract."
Dyrenforth 2010 (N=23,250): similarity <0.5% of variance; Montoya 2008: actual similarity stops predicting inside relationships. No support for complementarity.
"Similar personalities are happier together."
Same evidence; personality quality (partner's agreeableness, conscientiousness, low neuroticism) matters, similarity does not.
"Write down what you want and find it."
Stated ideals do not predict in-person desire (Eastwick & Finkel 2008; 2014 meta; 2019). Criteria work only as dealbreaker floors and life-course facts.
Fixed four-box attachment "types" and the anxious/avoidant "trap."
Attachment is two continuous dimensions; 65–80% category stability; enduring change after ~a quarter of major life events (Fraley 2021); anxiety declines with age (Chopik 2019); the trap narrative is a popularization with no established replicated finding.
"The 36 questions make people fall in love."
Aron 1997 produced a temporary closeness state in the lab; no durable-bond claim in the paper; the "one couple married" story is journalism.
"Love languages" as a matching or prediction tool.
Lacks empirical support (flagged across runs).
"Good communication skills" performances (active listening, paraphrasing) mark healthy couples.
Gottman found paraphrasing exchanges in 4.4% of happy-couple interactions and predicted nothing.
"How he treats the waiter tells you how he'll treat you."
Plausible heuristic; no dedicated study links it to partner treatment. The inconsistency version (warmth switched by status) is the defensible signal.
"Once a cheater, always a cheater."
Directionally supported but probabilistic: ~3× odds (Knopp 2017, N=484, re-partnered sample); models explain 17–21% of variance.
"You must love yourself before someone can love you."
No evidence as a prerequisite (Jansen et al. 2025/26, N=460: partial relationship only); low self-esteem is a risk factor, not a gate.
"Do the work on yourself first, then you'll attract the right person."
Joel 2020: individual traits ~5% of partner satisfaction; individual therapy not established as improving relationship outcomes (Carr 2025); transfer happens only through specific trainable behaviors and relationship-loaded variables.
"High-value man" / hypergamy as a law of female behavior.
Stated resource preference is real (Buss), small, culturally moderated (Kasser & Sharma 1999), and absent in actual choice (Eastwick & Finkel; Todd 2007).
Money-script "types" (avoidance, worship, status, vigilance) as established categories.
Four-factor structure failed in a diverse sample of 2,686 (Reiter 2025).
"Choice overload" as an iron law of dating apps.
Replication failures (Scheibehenne); real but fragile.
7Health and biology
"1 in 3 women aged 35–39 won't conceive within a year."
Traces (Twenge 2013) to a 2004 Human Reproduction paper built on French birth records from 1670–1830. Modern prospective data: Dunson 2004 (N=782) — 18% at 35–39 do not conceive within a year, i.e., ~82% do (vs 86% at 27–34), many more within two years; Steiner & Jukic 2016 — gradual decline, no difference 30–31 vs 32–33.
"Men's fertility doesn't age."
Paternal age adds ~2 de novo mutations per year (doubling ~16.5 years); ~2× schizophrenia/ASD risk at 40 vs 20 from low bases; male fecundability declines from late 30s.
"90% of bipolar marriages end in divorce" / "60–75%" / "2–3×."
Untraceable to peer-reviewed sources (commercial blog origin); a 2–3× multiplier on a ~40–50% base is arithmetically implausible. MUSUBI (N=1,071): 2.8% divorced over 2 years.
"ADHD raises divorce risk 30–50%."
Not traceable to a peer-reviewed effect size; small clinical samples (Eakin N=33) show poorer adjustment tied to untreated ADHD.
"It takes ~9 years to seek help after recognizing a problem."
N=19 qualitative study; illustrative only. NESARC's ~8–10-year treatment gap is the defensible figure.
"One problem gambler affects ≥7 other people."
Clinical consensus, not a peer-reviewed effect size.
Financial infidelity as one number.
Range 13–43% depending on wording (TD Bank vs Bankrate/NEFE); cite as a range. Overstated when given as a single figure.
8Culture and family
"Absent Black fathers."
CDC NHSR 71 (2013): Black fathers highest on daily care (70% vs 60% white, 45% Hispanic) and homework help (41% vs 28%/29%); nonresident Black fathers more involved than other nonresident fathers; involvement declines less on repartnering (Fragile Families, N=2,447).
"The Black marriage decline is caused by X" (culture, or economics, or incarceration alone).
Each is real and partial: economics 24.4–46.3% of the decline (Sawhill & Venator), incarceration 2.4 points per 1-point rise (Charles & Luoh), culture ~12%; no monocausal account survives (Ruggles 2022).
"Culture of poverty" / Moynihan pathology framing.
Superseded by strengths scholarship (Billingsley, Hill, Nobles) and by structural evidence; kin and congregational support are measurable protective factors.
"Wait 6 months / 1 year before introducing a partner to your child."
Clinical consensus, not data; the evidenced variable is the number of transitions the child experiences (Fomby & Cherlin; Cavanagh & Huston).
"Marriage makes you happier and healthier" as a large causal effect.
Cross-sectional selection; longitudinal bump only; never-married wellbeing often comparable (Greitemeyer 2009; Sarkisian & Gerstel 2016); the male mortality gap is largely isolation and selection, buffered by non-spousal support.
"Serial monogamy is fine for the kids as long as each relationship is good."
Child outcomes worsen with each transition regardless (Fomby & Cherlin 2007; Cavanagh & Huston 2006/2008). F [RC].
"A shared baby will bond the stepfamily."
"His, hers, and ours" findings mixed; shared child does not reliably protect against dissolution. Overstated [RC].
"Success sequence" (education → work → marriage → children) as causal guarantee.
Wilcox/IFS framing contested as confounding privilege with causation [AA].
Notice what they have in common.
Almost every one offers a shortcut — a rule, a timeline, a tell, an algorithm, a match. Something that lets you skip finding out who someone actually is. The research keeps pointing the same direction: there is no shortcut. There is a method.
Start the guide